E-mobility – Evaluating the Opportunities (2020-2030)

by Narasimhan Santhanam

This post is a part of EV Next’s EV Perspectives.

EV Next, a division of EAI, is a leading market intelligence & strategic consulting firm for the Indian e-mobility sector.

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This post is part of a series titled “Strategizing for E-mobility Opportunities in India” from EV Next Perspectives. See all posts for this series from here. See previous post The Value Chain for Electric Vehicle Ecosystem – An Introduction

Evaluating the Opportunities

To identify opportunities that are ideal for you, our recommended approach would be to evaluate the components of the EV value chain. While there are parameters specific to your company that you might wish to evaluate these components on, we have provided a start by evaluating all the value chain components on key parameters that will be relevant for all companies.

• Growth potential: To start with, we provide an estimate of the potential of each of the components in the short, medium and long term.
• Characteristics of the opportunity: We next provide details of the characteristics of each component on aspects such as Investments Required, Competition, etc.
•  Requirements for success: We finally provide insights on what’s needed for companies to benefit from each of these opportunities.

  Potential for EV Opportunities

 To identify opportunities that are ideal for you, our recommended approach would be to evaluate the components of the EV value chain. While there are parameters specific to your company that you might wish to evaluate these components on, we have provided a start by evaluating all the value chain components on key parameters that will be relevant for all companies.

• Growth potential: To start with, we provide an estimate of the potential of each of the components in the short, medium and long term.
• Characteristics of the opportunity: We next provide details of the characteristics of each component on aspects such as Investments Required, Competition, etc.
• Requirements for success: We finally provide insights on what’s needed for companies to benefit from each of these opportunities.

Let’s start with a review of the EV value chain and infer on the opportunities for each part of the value chain, and the expected growth potential for each of these for 2020-2030 and beyond.

The inferences for the potential are based on EVNext’s analyses of the trends and the interactions we have had with diverse stakeholders in the industry. These efforts were undertaken as part of our consulting and research activities for the Indian e-mobility sector.

Expected growth of EV value chain components in three periods

L: Low (<10% CAGR); M: Moderate (10-25% CAGR); H: High (>25% CAGR)

Table 1: Expected growth of EV value chain components

Broadly stated, most upstream parts of the value chain (Raw materials, sub-components…) will need to be content with fairly average growth during the 2019-2025 period, while products, solutions and services midstream and downstream can start expecting reasonable business growth starting 2020 as India starts seeing moderate growth in certain end-user segments such as two-wheelers and three-wheelers.

Many businesses are interested in value chain components that are capable of growth in the short term. Components such as battery management systems, or engineering design services, or “light” end products such as scooters or LCVs could indeed show reasonable growth starting 2020, in our analysis. But from among such components with short term growth potential, only a few may offer very large future business opportunities, something that large corporates desire. Many of those components with the potential for a massive future upside could show growth only post 2025.

Does this mean that those keen on entering the upstream part of the value chain need to wait for a few years before making a move? Perhaps not, because investing in upstream parts of the value chain requires more planning, a higher degree of effort for financial closure, a longer time period identifying the right vendors or partners, and finally, a relatively long time to get the plant up and running. A Li-ion battery cell manufacturing facility could take up to one and a half years from planning to commissioning, while an electric scooter assembly facility could be completed within a couple of months!

Characteristics of the Opportunities

Every business opportunity with significant potential will not fit every business. To evaluate the fit of an opportunity for a particular business, it will be valuable to understand how the opportunity ranks on certain parameters.

This section helps you do this evaluation by listing the characteristics of the value chain components on the following:

• Investments required – Minimum investments needed for this component. This will determine the size of the business opportunities from this component are applicable.
• B2B or B2C – Is the customer for this value chain component B2B or B2C?
• Challenges – Key challenges faced by opportunities belonging to this component
• Competition – Extent of overall competition from within India and global
• Resources Required for Success – What assets, skills or other resources are needed to benefit from the opportunity?

Table 2: Characteristics of the Opportunities

This post is part of a series titled “Strategizing for E-mobility Opportunities in India” from EV Next Perspectives. See all posts for this series from here. See next post EV opportunities for different industry sectors and businesses

The following are the posts in this series:

• Current Status of EV Industry in India

• The Value Chain for Electric Vehicle Ecosystem – An Introduction

• E-mobility – Evaluating the Opportunities (2020-2030)

• EV opportunities for different industry sectors and businesses

• Vertical integration opportunities in e-mobility sector

• E-mobility – Steps to Identify the Right Opportunity

See what we have to say on the EV Business opportunities: Across Sectors & Businesses | Identify the Right opportunity | Evaluating the Opportunities |

Know more on how EV Next can assist your business in your strategy for the e-mobility and electric vehicles sectors, Here

Wish to know everything about India’s EV market from one place? Check out the India EV Expert Guide, an 800 page comprehensive guide to the Indian EV market. Here

Get to know about 1000+ EV innovations from EVI2: Electric Vehicle Innovation Intelligence from EVNext