This is wow! white paper / analysis paper. A must read.
Summary:
This monograph focuses on India’s need for oil and how this demand fits within its broader set of energy policies. The paper is divided into three sections. Part 1 surveys the country’s overall energy demand-supply situation, the “energy security” debate in the country, and the issues, actors, processes, and politics involved in energy policy and decisionmaking. Part 2 focuses on India’s search for oil, including its supply-side policies, such as efforts toward domestic E&P, acquisition of upstream assets abroad, supply and fuel diversification, and the development of strategic oil stocks. It also examines India’s demand-side policies, including regulatory, price and tax reform, fuel conservation, and efficiency measures. The concluding section offers observations about India’s likely actions in the energy sector at home and abroad and suggests further areas for research.
A number of key findings result:
■ India is likely to continue to have a set of separate energy policies formulated by different entities rather than an overarching energy strategy. Integration of these policies will likely improve over time.
■ Reform of India’s energy sector will continue—but at a slow pace. Implementing policies will be harder than formulating them.
■ Unless there is a non-BJP or non-Congress-led government at the center, India will continue to encourage private participation in its energy sector, as much out of necessity as out of choice.
■ India’s energy-related actions in the global arena will reflect its current foreign policy path of “enlightened self-interest” and maintaining diverse options. It will be cooperative or competitive, as suits its interests—in acquiring assets or pursuing partners—when it thinks it needs to be. However, India would much rather cooperate than compete.
■ India would be more inclined to cooperate with the international community (rather than focusing on a particular country or region) in the energy sphere if it were given a seat at the decisionmaking table. Global players should find a way to bring India into the International Energy Agency (IEA) or at least find a place for it in an “energy half-way house” en route to full membership.
■ For the foreseeable future, however, India will hesitate to rely completely on global markets. As a consequence, its country-by-country energy diplomacy and purchase of overseas assets will continue. However, its energy interests are not likely to trump the country’s larger strategic goals.
■ India’s energy interests are also likely to factor into its military strategy and behavior in the future. For example, India might be willing to take on a greater share of the international security burden related to protecting oil and gas supply lines.
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Full report here (PDF)
