Last updated: Feb 2020 by Narasimhan Santhanam
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t is a part of EV Next’s EV Perspectives.
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Global Electric Vehicle Sales in the Recent Past
New registrations of electric cars hit a new record in 2016, with over 750 thousand sales worldwide. In 2016-17, with a 29% market share, Norway had incontestably achieved the most successful deployment of electric cars in terms of market share, globally. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 6.4% electric car market share and Sweden with 3.4%. When it comes to electric car market shares, China, France and the United Kingdom all had electric car market shares close to 1.5% as of 2016-17. In 2016, China was by far the largest electric car market, accounting for more than 40% of the electric cars sold in the world and more than double the amount sold in the United States.
The following graph shows the global electric car stock, 2010-16
Looking at the chart above, it does appear that the global electric car market is close to or already at the inflexion point, in 2018. If the above growth continues into 2018 and beyond, we are indeed going to see electric vehicles forming a much larger proportion of the overall vehicles market worldwide. At the same time, one should observe that the dramatic growth of the last few years have been driven predominantly by two countries, China and the US – especially the former, which has seen its market size double every year for the past few years leading to 2018.
Whether such furious growth can continue in these two markets sustainably is debatably. Equally interesting is the extent to which large countries such as India can start contributing to this fast growth.
While trends are difficult to predict beyond five years, one can with confidence state that the high annual growth rate seen in the chart above for electric cars worldwide is likely to continue at least until 2020, perhaps even until 2022.
Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
Dynamic developments in policy implementation and technology advances underpin the projections to 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, which aims to illustrate the consequences of announced policy ambitions. Projections in the EV30@30 Scenario are underpinned by proactive participation of the private sector, promising technology advances and global engagement in EV policy support. It is aligned with the goal of the EVI EV30@30 Campaign to achieve a 30% market share by 2030 for EVs in all modes except two-wheelers (where market shares are higher). In the New Policies Scenario, China leads with the highest level of EV uptake over the projection period: the share of EVs in new vehicle sales reaches 57% across all road transport modes (i.e. two-wheelers, cars, buses and trucks), or 28% excluding two/three-wheelers. It is followed by Europe, where the EV sales share reaches 26% in 2030 and Japan, one of the global leaders in the transition to electric mobility with a 21% EV share of sales in 2030. In North America, growth is particularly strong in Canada (where EV market shares reach 29% by 2030), as well as in California and US states that have adopted zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates and/or have stated an intention to continue to improve vehicle fuel economy. Other parts of the United States are slower to adopt EVs, bringing the overall EV sales share to 8% of the US vehicle market in 2030.
In 2030, global EV sales reach 23 million and the stock exceeds 130 million vehicles in the New Policies Scenario (excluding two/ three-wheelers). In the EV30@30 Scenario, EV sales and stock nearly double by 2030: sales reach 43 million and the stock is larger than 250 million.
In the EV30@30 Scenario, EVs make up 70% of all vehicle sales in China in 2030 (42% excluding two/three-wheelers). Almost half of all vehicles sold in 2030 in Europe are EVs, 37% in Japan, more than 30% in Canada and the United States, 29% in India and 22% in other countries, taken together. The electric car targets announced by automobile manufacturers align closely with the stock projections in the New Policies Scenario in 2020. In 2025, the auto industry targets range between the projections of the New Policies Scenario and of the EV30@30 Scenario. Expansion of automotive battery manufacturing capacity will largely depend on the evolution of electrification in car markets. This is due to the number of electric cars sold that far exceeds sales volumes of other modes (except two-wheelers), and the size of their battery packs, which are much larger for cars than for two-wheelers. There is growing consensus that the electrification of cars will be a pivotal pillar to reduce unit cost of automotive battery packs. Thanks to their instrumental role to facilitate the availability of energy storage at lower costs, EVs are also likely to be a crucial step for the transition to a cleaner energy system.
OEM targets are close to the stock projections of the New Policies Scenario in 2020 and lie between the projections of the New Policies Scenario and of the EV30@30 Scenario in 2025.
(These statistics were referred from Global EV outlook 2019)
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See also the blog posts:
- Key EV Product & Geo Market Segments & Growth Trends – E-bikes, E-scooters, Electric Cars, E-scooters
- Current and Expected Market Sizes of Electric Vehicles in India – E-scooter, Electric Car, Electric Rickshaws, E-bikes
- Challenges to EV Growth in India – Cost & Performance Challenges for Indian Electric Vehicle Market
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